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SOLUTION 05 CAPITAL PROJECTS & INFRASTRUCTURE

Where a slipped date and an unclassified commitment both cost real money

Capital delivery needs the money and the schedule in one model. Lodestar carries budget, secured, committed, actual, forecast and variance at ledger level, and turns earned value into an early warning instead of a month-end surprise.

EVM · CPI/SPILEDGER-LEVEL ACTUALSFORECAST BREACH ALERTS
THE MANDATEDeliver the asset without discovering the overrun at year end
THE FAILURE MODEFinance in the ledger, schedule in the planner, forecast in a spreadsheet
WHAT CHANGESMoney and dates on one object, with earned value raising the alarm early

Six numbers, one truth, no spreadsheet in between

Budget, secured, committed, actual, forecast and variance live on the same object as the schedule — so a commitment without a classification, or spend ahead of progress, is caught immediately.

  • Ledger-level actuals from the finance system, not retyped
  • Unclassified allocations and leakage risk flagged on sight
  • Forecast final recomputed as the plan changes
Budget utilization
Burn + ETC = Forecast Final · variance vs plan
CURRENT BURN
$1.52B
41% of plan
COMMITTED
$1.36B
obligated · CPI 0.92
EST. TO COMPLETE
$3.36B
forecast − burn
FORECAST FINAL
$4.88B
+30.2% vs plan
4 PROJECTS LACK AN ENGINE FORECAST — BUDGET USED AS THE ESTIMATE, DISCLOSED
Earned value — where the money is really going
Per project · rolled up to pillar
CPI 0.88P14 Foundation Model — burn 34% ahead of earned valueEAC +6.2%
CPI 0.92P25 National SOC — commitments outrunning progresswatch
CPI 1.02P44 Sovereign Crypto — on planon plan
SPI 0.48P90 AI Standards — schedule slipping, spend flatreview
BURN AHEAD OF PROGRESS IS A DETECTOR, NOT AN OPINION

Earned value as an alarm, not a report

CPI and SPI are computed per project and rolled up, so the program knows which packages are buying progress and which are only spending.

  • EV, CPI, SPI and EAC per project and per pillar
  • Burn-vs-progress mismatch is a typed detector, not a hunch
  • Breach projected weeks before it lands

One moved date, priced across the whole portfolio

The cascade hunter simulates the ripple when a date moves — including the undeclared dependencies AI finds — and prices it in days of end-date impact and cost.

  • Second-order effects computed by the engine
  • Undeclared links surfaced and proposed for confirmation
  • Committee pack shows the costed consequence
What-if — delay "Systems install" +14d
Sandbox · baseline frozen
NEW FINISH
12 JUL
was 28 Jun
CASCADE
7 tasks
2 projects
NEAR-CRITICAL
+3 tasks
newly exposed
COST IMPACT
$560K
priced, not guessed
SANDBOX — LIVE DATA UNTOUCHED · APPLY VIA GOVERNANCE
RUNS ON BUDGET BURN ENGINEEARNED VALUECASCADE DETECTORSCENARIO ENGINECFO AGENT SAME ENGINES THE SCREENS RUN ON
WHAT YOU GET

The capital delivery toolkit

01
Ledger-level finance

Budget, secured, committed, actual, forecast and variance on one object.

02
Earned value

CPI, SPI and EAC computed per project and rolled up honestly.

03
Forecast engine

Forecast final recomputed as dates and commitments change.

04
Cascade & dependency hunter

Undeclared links found and priced in days of end-date impact.

05
Contingency simulation

Test a drawdown in a sandbox before anyone signs for it.

06
Leakage detection

Unclassified allocations and invoices without a match, flagged.

THE OUTCOME The overrun caught while it is still a decision, not a disclosure
PMO →Private Equity & Value Creation →All solutions →
PICK YOUR MANDATE

See it on your own program, with your own numbers

A 45-minute working session: we load a slice of your portfolio and show the roll-up, the exceptions Polaris finds, and the pack it generates.

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